NFL Playoff Predictions

• ATL@AZ +2  Cards by 1 and points
• Indy @ SDG  +1  Indy by 1
• Bal @ Mia  +3 Baltimore by 1, Miami w/points
• Philly@ Min +3  Eagles by 1, Min w/points

playoffs: winners 3-1 ats: 1-3

NFL AWARDS

Here are the NFL's best this year as I see it:

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, IND 

After a slow start coming back from injury the Colts were 3-4 and in danger of not making the playoffs. Since then the Colts have won 8 in a row and Manning has 16 Td's vs. 3 Int's. 

OFFENSIVE POY: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

Without question the best runner in the NFL. 

Defensive POY: James Harrison, LB, Steelers

The best defensive player on the best defense. The guy was everywhere this year with 67 tackles, 34 assists, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception.

Rookie: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

see my previous article 

Coach: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee

Lead his team to the NFL's best record despite the troubles of its young QB Vince Young.

OFFENSE

• QB  PEYTON MANNING, IND
• RB  ADRIAN PETERSON, MIN
• RB  CLINTON PORTIS, WAS
• TE  TONY GONZALEZ, KC
• OT  JAMMAL BROWN, NO
• OT  DAVID DIEHL, NYG
• C      Shaun O' Hara, NYG
• G     Chris Snee, NYG
• G     Steve Hutchinson, MIN
• WR  ANDRE JOHNSON, HOU
• WR CALVIN JOHNSON, DET

Defense

• DT  ALBERT HAYNESWORTH, TENN
• DT  Kris Jenkins, NYJ
• DE  DeMarcus Ware, DAL
• DE   Joey Porter, MIA
• LB   Jon Beason, CAR
• LB   James Farrior, Pit
• LB   James Harrison, Pit
• CB   Courtland Finnegan, Tenn
• CB  Asante Samuel, Phi
• S   Troy Palamalu, Pit
• S   Michael Griffin, Tenn

Christmas comes early for Mark Teixeira and the Yankees

According to SI.com Mark Texiera has signed an 8 year 180 million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. Once again the Yankees have outbid the Red Sox for a free agent. With a new stadium and the revenue that the luxury seating already largely sold the Yankees have a seemingly endless stream of revenue. New York who has not won a World Series since 2000 is on the hook for 27 million dollars in luxury tax from last year's team payroll. Despite this, the Yanks payroll had already been trimmed by 82 million dollars with the retirement of Mike Mussina and free agency of Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, and Bobby Abreu. There still appears to be 15-20 million still available if they spend to the same level this year even after the signings ofNick Swisher, C.C. Sabathia 23 million/yr and A.J. Burnett 18.5 million/yr. Manny Ramirez appears to have few teams with either the resources or inclination to sign him which makes the Yankees and Dodgers the likely landing spots. 

So what type of impact will his signing have on the Yanks offense? Well according to baseball-reference.com his runs created figure was 134 runs last year which is .83/game over 162 games. His offense is replacing that of Giambi who was 94 RC's last year a net improvement of 40 RC's or a quarter of a run a game. Last year the Yankees were far from the Bronx bombers of the past averaging just 4.87 runs/game 7th in the American League. If they improve to 5.12 per game with the addition of Texiera they would've been 3rd last year behind Texas and Boston. Using the most basic version of Bill James pythagorian won lost projections the Yankees would have won 91 1/2 games last year...let's round it to 92 games, he is good with the glove by the way, still 5 games behind Tampa's 97 wins last year. The offensive wild card is Nick Swisher who was 37 RC less than Abreu last year which could offset Teixeira's contribution somewhat if he doesn't bounce back. 

Looking at the pitching acquisitions, Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson combined for a 5.59 ERA and just over 193 IP last year. Burnett should save the Yankees about 20 runs and Sabathia another 18-20 runs over what Mussina did. Making the adjustments, thank you Mr. Pythagoris, that brings the Yankees to about 96 games which puts them square between the 97 wins the Rays and 95 wins garnered by the Red Sox last year. So the deals pull them at least even if not making them the prohibitive favorites in the AL East.   

week 17

• Jax @ Bal -12 1/2  Baltimore by 6, Jax w/points
• Oak @Tb -14  Tampa by 11, Oak w/points
• Nwe @ Buff +7  Nwe by 3, Buff w/points
• KC @ CINCY -3  Cincy by 2, KC w/points
• Mia @ NYJ -2 1/2  JETS by 1, Miami w/points
• Dallas @ Philly -1 1/2  Philly by 5 and cover
• Was @ SF -3  Skins by 1, San Fran w/points push
• Sea @ AZ -6  Zona by 11 and cover
• Denver @Sdg -9  Chargers by 1, Denver w/points
• nyg @ min -6 1/2  Vikings by 1, Giants w/ points
• Clev @ Pitt -10 1/2  Steelers by 13 and cover
• Tenn@Indy +3  Indy by 1 and points
• Car @ NO  +3    Saints by 6 and points
• Chi @ Hou -3  Houston by 6 and cover
• Stl @ Atl -15   Falcons by 9, Rams w/15
• Det @ GB -9 1/2  Pack by 12 and cover

week: winners: 11-4  ats: 11-3-1   season: winners: 62-30  ats: 60-30-2 (.667)

week 16

• Indy @Jax +6 Indy by 7 and cover
  
• Bal @ Dal -4   Dal by 3, Ravens w/ 3
  
• No @Det +7   Saints by 10 and the cover
  
• Pitt @ Tenn +2  Steelers by 1, Titans w/2
• Sf @Stl +5 1/2  Frisco by 5, Rams getting 5 1/2
• Cincy @ Clev -3 Browns by 4 and cover
• Mia @ KC + 3 1/2  Fins by 2, KC getting the points
• AZ @ NWE -7 1/2  Nwe by 2, take AZ w/points
• SDG @ Tampa -3 1/2  Bucs by 6 and cover
• Hou @ OAK +7  Houston by 6, Oak w/ 7
• NYJ @ SEA +3 1/2  Jets by 5 and cover
• BUFF @ DEN -6 1/2  Denver by 4, Buff w/6 1/2
• ATL @ MIN -3  Minn by 4 and cover
• PHILLY @ WASH +5  Philly by 1, Skins w/5
• CAR @NYG -3  Giants by 5 and cover
• GB @CHI -4  Chitown by 1, Pack w/4

week: winners 7-9  ats: 10-6  season: winners 51-26 ats: 49-27-1  (.640)

week 15 bets

• NO@CHI -3 New Orleans by 5 and the cover
• TB@ATL -3 ATL by 1, Tampa with the 3 push
• Tenn@HOU +3 Titans by 1, take Houston with the 3
  
• Wash@Cincy +7 Skins by 8 and the cover
• GB@JAX +1 1/2 take Jax in an upset by 2
• SF@MIA -6 1/2 Miami by 6, Niners w/points
• Det@Indy -17 Indy by 11, Detroit w/points
• SDG@KC +5 SDG by 2, KC w/points
• Buff@NYJ -7 JETS by 3, Buff w/points
• Den@Car -7 Carolina by 2, Denver getting 7
• NWE@OAK +7 1/2 NWE by 6, Oak w/7 1/2
• Pitt@Bal -2 Baltimore by 3 and the cover
• NYG@DAL -3 Dallas by 1, Giants w/3
• Clev@Philly -14 PHILLY by 15 covers
  

week: winners:10-4  ats: 7-6-1 
season 44-17 winners 39-21-1spread (.650)

Week 14 Best Bets

1. Minnesota@Det +10 1/2 Minnesota by 6, Detroit covers
   
2. Cincy@Colts -13 1/2 Colts by 6, Cincy covers
   
3. Atl@Saints -3 Saints by 5 and the cover
   
4. Philly@NYG -7 Giants by 6, Philly covers
   
5. HOUSTON@GB -6 Green Bay by 4, Houston covers
   
6. CLEV@TENN -14 Titans by 12, Browns cover
   
7. JAX@CHI -6 1/2 Chicago by 1, Jax covers
   
8. NYJ@49ERS +3 1/2 Jets by 3, Niners cover
   
9. NWE@SEATTLE +6 Pats by 3, Seattle covers
   
10. KC@DENVER -9 Denver by 6, KC covers
    
11. MIA@BUFF -1 Miami by 1 on the road
    
12. DALLAS@PITT -3 Steelers by 4 and the cover
    
13. STL@AZ -14 Arizona by 17 and the cover
    
14. WASH@BALT -5 Baltimore by 4, Skins cover
    
15. TB@CAR -3 Carolina by 1, Tampa covers

winners 11-4, ats 10-5








last week winners 10-6 spread 12-4...season 34-13 winners 32-15 spread (.681)

Is Jim Rice a Hall of Famer

Probably the hottest debate surrounding the Hall of Fame selection this year is the electability of Jim Rice. I will present the fact to you off data I gleemed off of www.baseball-reference.com.

First the positives. According to Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, Rice is 89th all time just ahead of Duke Snider and behind Gary Sheffield. The most similar players listed on the site stats wise who are in the Hall of Fame are Orlando Cepeda, Duke Snider, Billy Williams, and Willie Stargell. Rice is 29th in career MVP voting credited with 3.15 shares winning the 1978 MVP. His career batting average of .298 is the same as Mickey Mantle and Barry Bonds. He has more career total bases than Joe Dimaggio.

Now the negatives. It would be inaccurate to label him as primarily a DH as he played 1503 of 2089 career games in the outfield. But it would be accurate to label him as a fielder with poor range even though he played half his games in Fenway Park with its miniscule left field. His range factor was 1.84 in a league where the average was about 2.16 plays a game. He was a poor postseason hitter with a career average of .225 in 3 series. His .352 on base percentage is the same as Rafael Furcal. He was painfully slow as he got older and finished 6th all time in grounding into double plays.

The I don't knows. He has 295 Adjusted Batting Runs in his career, more than Harold Baines, less than Jose Canseco. He was on 2 pennant winning teams both who lost in the World Series.

Comparing the visible stats:
Rice .298 avg 382 hr 1451 rbi
Cepeda .297 avg 417 hr 1365 rbi
Snider .295 avg 358 hr 1333 rbi
Williams .290 avg 434 hr 1475 rbi
Stargel .282 avg 475 hr 1540 rbi

Is Reggie Bush a Bust?

Watching the Saints vs. Bucs game this weekend I couldn't help but think back to the 06' NFL draft when teams were clamoring for a chance to draft him after an electrifying couple of years at USC. The Houston Texans drafted DL Mario Williams and their GM was basically ridden out of town while Katrina stricken New Orleans cheered wildly when they got Bush. How things change. As of this writing Bush has amassed 1440 yds rushing in 36 games 1557 receiving a grand total of 23 Td's (4 on punt returns) and 13 fumbles. Compare that with his college numbers in 39 games (3169 rush yds, 1301 receiving yds, 38 td's from scrimmage) and his numbers pale in comparison.

At 6'0" and 200-205 lbs Bush is a better receiver than running back. He's a tweener, too short to be a full time receiver, not powerful enough to be a 1st down back. New Orleans has tried to utilize his ability to make defenders miss by putting him in space throwing the ball to him almost 6x a game but his ability to break tackles has been poor. He averages a pedestrian 3.6 yds/carry on the ground and 7.5 yds/catch for his career. In the same 06' draft running back Maurice Jones-Drew from Pac-10 rival UCLA was picked at the tail end of the 2nd round and was considered at 5'6 1/2 208 lbs. to be far too small to be a star in the NFL. All he has done is eclipse Bush's numbers with 2212 yds rushing, 1236 yds receiving and an astounding 35 combined touchdowns. Meanwhile Mario Williams has also been more productive with 26.5 sacks and 141 tackes in 43 games for Houston. Thus far the only bigger bust than Bush is the one on his girlfriend Kim Kardashian. Reggie we are still waiting......