week 4 picks

NYG @ WAS -4 WAS BY 9.4
MIA @ OAK +4 MIA BY .9
DET @ NYJ PK  DET BY 2.1
CAR @ BAL -3  BAL BY 3.9
TENN @ INDY -7  INDY BY 14.5
BUFF @ HOU -3 HOU BY 3.3
GB @ CHI -1  CHI BY 6
TB @ PITT -10  PITT BY 10
JAX @ SDG -13.5 SDG BY 12.1
PHI @ SF -4.5  PHI BY 6.5
ATL @ MIN +3  ATL BY 9.7
NO @ DAL +3  DAL BY 2.6
NWE @ KC +4  NWE BY .2

nfl qb rankings wk 3

RK	PLAYER	TEAM
1	Andy Dalton, QB	CIN
2	Peyton Manning, QB	DEN
3	Matthew Stafford, QB	DET
4	Austin Davis, QB	STL
5	Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB	HOU
6	Matt Ryan, QB	ATL
7	Drew Brees, QB	NO
8	Philip Rivers, QB	SD
9	Ben Roethlisberger, QB	PIT
10	Russell Wilson, QB	SEA
11	Nick Foles, QB	PHI
12	Aaron Rodgers, QB	GB
13	EJ Manuel, QB	BUF
14	Jay Cutler, QB	CHI
15	Carson Palmer, QB	ARI
16	Cam Newton, QB	CAR
17	Joe Flacco, QB	BAL
18	Brian Hoyer, QB	CLE
19	Jake Locker, QB	TEN
20	Kirk Cousins, QB	WSH
21	Andrew Luck, QB	IND
22	Colin Kaepernick, QB	SF
23	Derek Anderson, QB	CAR
24	Chad Henne, QB	JAX
25	Tony Romo, QB	DAL
26	Geno Smith, QB	NYJ
27	Tom Brady, QB	NE
28	Derek Carr, QB	OAK
29	Ryan Tannehill, QB	MIA
30	Josh McCown, QB	TB
31	Alex Smith, QB	KC
32	Eli Manning, QB	NYG
33	Drew Stanton, QB	ARI
34	Matt Cassel, QB	MIN

week 3 picks

TB @ ATL -6.5  ATL BY 4.7  56-14
SDG @ BUFF -2.5 BUFF BY 6.3 10-22
DAL @ STL   PK  DAL BY 4.7 34-31
WAS @ PHI -5.5   phi by 6.6   37-34
HOU @ NYG +2   HOU BY 9.5   17-30
MIN @ NO -10   NO BY 5.6  20-9
TEN @ CIN -6.5   CIN BY 8.8 33-7
BAL @ CLE +1.5  clev by 4.1  21-23
GB @ DET -2.5    det by 4.1 19-7
INDY @ JAX +7   INDY BY 5.5  44-7
OAK @NWE  -14.5    NWE BY 10.7 16-9
SF @ AZ +2.5   SF BY 5.7 14-23
DEN @ SEA -4.5  SEA BY 2.6 26-20
KC @ MIA -4   MIA BY 7.9 15-34
PIT @ CAR -3  CAR BY 10.2  19-37
CHI @ NYJ -2.5  nyj by .5

ATS 5-10
STRAIGHT  9-6

week 2 picks

Pitt @ Bal -2.5 PITT BY 6.6. 6-26   X
MIA @ BUFF PK MIA BY 5.6  10-29. X
JAX @ WASH -6  JAX BY 1.5  10-41 x
DAL @ TENN -3.5  TENN BY 15  10-26 x
AZ @ NYG -2 AZ BY 2.7 25-14  c
NWE @ MIN +3 MIN BY 6  7-30. X
NO @ CLEV +6 CLEV BY 7.9 26-24  c
ATL @ CINCY -4.5 ATL BY 3.1 10-24 x
DET @CAR -3 DET BY 10.6  7-24. X
STL @ TB -5.5 TB BY 7.4 17-19 x
SEA @ SDG +5.5 SEA BY 14 20-31 x
HOU @ OAK +3 HOU BY 4.1 30-14 c
NYJ @ GB -8 NYJ BY 3.4 31-24 c
KC @ DEN -13 DEN BY 17.3 24-17 x
CHI @ SF -7 SF BY 10.7
PHILLY @ INDY -3 PHILLY BY 9.6

Against spread 4-10
Straight  4-10
Season ats 16-14

FINAL NFL REG SEASON POWER RANKINGS

TEAM	NFL	W	L	T
1	* - Denver	13	3	0
2	* - Seattle	13	3	0
3	z - New England	12	4	0
4	z - Cincinnati	11	5	0
5	y - Kansas City	11	5	0
6	y - San Francisco	12	4	0
7	y - New Orleans	11	5	0
8	z - Philadelphia	10	6	0
9	Dallas	8	8	0
10	z - Carolina	12	4	0
11	Chicago	8	8	0
12	y - San Diego	9	7	0
13	z - Indianapolis	11	5	0
14	z - Green Bay	8	7	1
15	Arizona	10	6	0
16	Detroit	7	9	0
17	Pittsburgh	8	8	0
18	Tennessee	7	9	0
19	Minnesota	5	10	1
20	St. Louis	7	9	0
21	Buffalo	6	10	0
22	Atlanta	4	12	0
23	Miami	8	8	0
24	Baltimore	8	8	0
25	Washington	3	13	0
26	Oakland	4	12	0
27	Cleveland	4	12	0
28	NY Giants	7	9	0
29	NY Jets	8	8	0
30	Tampa Bay	4	12	0
31	Houston	2	14	0
32	Jacksonville	4	12	0

Final NFL reg season qbs RATINGS

Rank

RK	PLAYER
1	Peyton Manning, QB
2	Drew Brees, QB
3	Philip Rivers, QB
4	Matt Ryan, QB
5	Ben Roethlisberger, QB
6	Tony Romo, QB
7	Nick Foles, QB
8	Tom Brady, QB
9	Russell Wilson, QB
10	Carson Palmer, QB
11	Aaron Rodgers, QB
12	Andy Dalton, QB
13	Josh McCown, QB
14	Matthew Stafford, QB
15	Andrew Luck, QB
16	Colin Kaepernick, QB
17	Cam Newton, QB
18	Alex Smith, QB
19	Jay Cutler, QB
20	Ryan Tannehill, QB
21	Robert Griffin III, QB
22	Chad Henne, QB
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
24	Joe Flacco, QB
25	Matt Flynn, QB
26	Mike Glennon, QB
27	Sam Bradford, QB
28	Matt Cassel, QB
29	Christian Ponder, QB
30	Jake Locker, QB
31	Eli Manning, QB
32	Kellen Clemens, QB
33	Matt Schaub, QB
34	Jason Campbell, QB
35	EJ Manuel, QB
36	Geno Smith, QB
37	Case Keenum, QB
38	Matt McGloin, QB
39	Terrelle Pryor, QB
40	Brandon Weeden, QB

NFL WEEK 4

49ERS VS RAMS +3.5 Rams by 3
RAVENS VS BILLS +3.5 Ravens by 8
CARDS VS BUCS -2.5 CARDS BY 3
STEELERS VS VIKINGS -1 Vikings by 6
GIANTS VS CHIEFS -4 CHIEFS BY 10
COLTS VS JAGS  +7.5 Colts by 13
SEAHAWKS VS TEXANS +3 Seattle by 23
BENGALS VS BROWNS +5 BENGALS BY 4
BEARS VS LIONS -3 Bears by 8
JETS VS TITANS  -5 Jets by 1
REDSKINS VS RAIDERS +3.5 Raiders by 1
EAGLES VS BRONCOS -10 Broncos by 15
COWBOYS VS CHARGERS +1 COWBOYS BY 8
PATRIOTS VS FALCONS +2 Pats by 3
DOLPHINS VS SAINTS -5.5 Saints by 5

week 6-7-1

NFL POWER POLL

Current Power Poll
Top 5

1. Denver
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Texans
5. San Diego

Bottom 5

1. Jags
2. Browns
3. Steelers
4. 49ers
5. Jets

NFL Week 3

Chiefs vs Eagles -3 Philly by 1
Titans vs Ravens +2.5 Titans by 6

Giants vs Panthers -1 Giants by 2
Rams vs Cowboys -3.5 Dallas by 1
Bucs vs Pats -9 Pats by 2
Chargers vs Titans -3  SDG by 5
Browns vs Vikings -5Vikings by 10
Packers vs Bengals +2.5 Pack by 10
Lions vs Skins -1 Lions by 4
Cards vs Saints -7.5 Cardinals by 2
Falcons vs Dolphins -1.5 Atlanta by 1
Bills vs Jets -1 Buff by 5
Colts vs 49ers -10 Colts by 5
Jags vs Seahawks -19.5 Seattle by 18
Bears vs Steelers +2 Bears by 11
Raiders vs Broncos -15 Denver by 16


Season ats 17-12-2

Week 5-8-1

Week 2

NYJ vs Pats -13 Pats by 3 take Jets
Panthers vs Bills +3 Buffalo by 7
Browns vs Ravens -6.5 Ravens by 7
Vikings vs Bears -6.5 Bears by 3 take Vikings
Cowboys vs Chiefs -3 Kc by 6
Redskins vs Packers -6.5 Pack by 7
Titans vs Texans -9 Texans by 6 take titans
Dolphins vs Colts -3 Dolphins by 4
Chargers vs Eagles -6.5 Eagles by 5 take SDG
Rams vs Falcons -7 Rams by 7
Lions vs Cardinals. PK Lions by 8
Saints vs Bucs +3 Saints by 5
Broncos vs Giants +4.5 Denver by 17
Jags vs Raiders -5.5 Raiders by 7
49ers vs Seattle +2.5 49ers by 5
Steelers vs Cincy -7.5 Cincy by 7 take Pitt

Season ats 7-7-1
Wk 10-5-1

Most Successful NFL Franchise

Using the same methodology I used with the coaches article I have the following franchises listed as the most successful in the NFL since their inception.


team titles pts
packers 12 146
cowboys 5 140
steelers 5 140
49ers 5 140
giants 7 121
redskins 5 104
patriots 3 95
raiders 3 84
browns 8 83
bears 9 82
colts 4 82
broncos 2 60
rams 3 53
dolphins 2 52
lions 4 45
eagles 3 33
bucs 1 32
ravens 1 31
jets 1 26
chiefs 2 18
titans 2 16
bills 2 16
cardinals 2 10
chargers 1 8

If you agree with this chart,which basically surmizes that winning a championship in a league with 32 teams is more difficult than in one with ten, then the Steelers have an opportunity to become the most successful NFL franchise ever with a win in the SuperBowl.

AFC NFC CHAMPIONSHIPS

• BAL @ Pitt  -5 1/2 Steelers by 2, Ravens w/points
  
• Philly @ AZ +3  Philly by 2, Cards w/points

winners 7-3....spread 6-4

NFL Playoff Predictions

• ATL@AZ +2  Cards by 1 and points
• Indy @ SDG  +1  Indy by 1
• Bal @ Mia  +3 Baltimore by 1, Miami w/points
• Philly@ Min +3  Eagles by 1, Min w/points

playoffs: winners 3-1 ats: 1-3

NFL AWARDS

Here are the NFL's best this year as I see it:

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, IND 

After a slow start coming back from injury the Colts were 3-4 and in danger of not making the playoffs. Since then the Colts have won 8 in a row and Manning has 16 Td's vs. 3 Int's. 

OFFENSIVE POY: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

Without question the best runner in the NFL. 

Defensive POY: James Harrison, LB, Steelers

The best defensive player on the best defense. The guy was everywhere this year with 67 tackles, 34 assists, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception.

Rookie: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

see my previous article 

Coach: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee

Lead his team to the NFL's best record despite the troubles of its young QB Vince Young.

OFFENSE

• QB  PEYTON MANNING, IND
• RB  ADRIAN PETERSON, MIN
• RB  CLINTON PORTIS, WAS
• TE  TONY GONZALEZ, KC
• OT  JAMMAL BROWN, NO
• OT  DAVID DIEHL, NYG
• C      Shaun O' Hara, NYG
• G     Chris Snee, NYG
• G     Steve Hutchinson, MIN
• WR  ANDRE JOHNSON, HOU
• WR CALVIN JOHNSON, DET

Defense

• DT  ALBERT HAYNESWORTH, TENN
• DT  Kris Jenkins, NYJ
• DE  DeMarcus Ware, DAL
• DE   Joey Porter, MIA
• LB   Jon Beason, CAR
• LB   James Farrior, Pit
• LB   James Harrison, Pit
• CB   Courtland Finnegan, Tenn
• CB  Asante Samuel, Phi
• S   Troy Palamalu, Pit
• S   Michael Griffin, Tenn

week 16

• Indy @Jax +6 Indy by 7 and cover
  
• Bal @ Dal -4   Dal by 3, Ravens w/ 3
  
• No @Det +7   Saints by 10 and the cover
  
• Pitt @ Tenn +2  Steelers by 1, Titans w/2
• Sf @Stl +5 1/2  Frisco by 5, Rams getting 5 1/2
• Cincy @ Clev -3 Browns by 4 and cover
• Mia @ KC + 3 1/2  Fins by 2, KC getting the points
• AZ @ NWE -7 1/2  Nwe by 2, take AZ w/points
• SDG @ Tampa -3 1/2  Bucs by 6 and cover
• Hou @ OAK +7  Houston by 6, Oak w/ 7
• NYJ @ SEA +3 1/2  Jets by 5 and cover
• BUFF @ DEN -6 1/2  Denver by 4, Buff w/6 1/2
• ATL @ MIN -3  Minn by 4 and cover
• PHILLY @ WASH +5  Philly by 1, Skins w/5
• CAR @NYG -3  Giants by 5 and cover
• GB @CHI -4  Chitown by 1, Pack w/4

week: winners 7-9  ats: 10-6  season: winners 51-26 ats: 49-27-1  (.640)

week 15 bets

• NO@CHI -3 New Orleans by 5 and the cover
• TB@ATL -3 ATL by 1, Tampa with the 3 push
• Tenn@HOU +3 Titans by 1, take Houston with the 3
  
• Wash@Cincy +7 Skins by 8 and the cover
• GB@JAX +1 1/2 take Jax in an upset by 2
• SF@MIA -6 1/2 Miami by 6, Niners w/points
• Det@Indy -17 Indy by 11, Detroit w/points
• SDG@KC +5 SDG by 2, KC w/points
• Buff@NYJ -7 JETS by 3, Buff w/points
• Den@Car -7 Carolina by 2, Denver getting 7
• NWE@OAK +7 1/2 NWE by 6, Oak w/7 1/2
• Pitt@Bal -2 Baltimore by 3 and the cover
• NYG@DAL -3 Dallas by 1, Giants w/3
• Clev@Philly -14 PHILLY by 15 covers
  

week: winners:10-4  ats: 7-6-1 
season 44-17 winners 39-21-1spread (.650)

Week 14 Best Bets

1. Minnesota@Det +10 1/2 Minnesota by 6, Detroit covers
   
2. Cincy@Colts -13 1/2 Colts by 6, Cincy covers
   
3. Atl@Saints -3 Saints by 5 and the cover
   
4. Philly@NYG -7 Giants by 6, Philly covers
   
5. HOUSTON@GB -6 Green Bay by 4, Houston covers
   
6. CLEV@TENN -14 Titans by 12, Browns cover
   
7. JAX@CHI -6 1/2 Chicago by 1, Jax covers
   
8. NYJ@49ERS +3 1/2 Jets by 3, Niners cover
   
9. NWE@SEATTLE +6 Pats by 3, Seattle covers
   
10. KC@DENVER -9 Denver by 6, KC covers
    
11. MIA@BUFF -1 Miami by 1 on the road
    
12. DALLAS@PITT -3 Steelers by 4 and the cover
    
13. STL@AZ -14 Arizona by 17 and the cover
    
14. WASH@BALT -5 Baltimore by 4, Skins cover
    
15. TB@CAR -3 Carolina by 1, Tampa covers

winners 11-4, ats 10-5








last week winners 10-6 spread 12-4...season 34-13 winners 32-15 spread (.681)

Is Reggie Bush a Bust?

Watching the Saints vs. Bucs game this weekend I couldn't help but think back to the 06' NFL draft when teams were clamoring for a chance to draft him after an electrifying couple of years at USC. The Houston Texans drafted DL Mario Williams and their GM was basically ridden out of town while Katrina stricken New Orleans cheered wildly when they got Bush. How things change. As of this writing Bush has amassed 1440 yds rushing in 36 games 1557 receiving a grand total of 23 Td's (4 on punt returns) and 13 fumbles. Compare that with his college numbers in 39 games (3169 rush yds, 1301 receiving yds, 38 td's from scrimmage) and his numbers pale in comparison.

At 6'0" and 200-205 lbs Bush is a better receiver than running back. He's a tweener, too short to be a full time receiver, not powerful enough to be a 1st down back. New Orleans has tried to utilize his ability to make defenders miss by putting him in space throwing the ball to him almost 6x a game but his ability to break tackles has been poor. He averages a pedestrian 3.6 yds/carry on the ground and 7.5 yds/catch for his career. In the same 06' draft running back Maurice Jones-Drew from Pac-10 rival UCLA was picked at the tail end of the 2nd round and was considered at 5'6 1/2 208 lbs. to be far too small to be a star in the NFL. All he has done is eclipse Bush's numbers with 2212 yds rushing, 1236 yds receiving and an astounding 35 combined touchdowns. Meanwhile Mario Williams has also been more productive with 26.5 sacks and 141 tackes in 43 games for Houston. Thus far the only bigger bust than Bush is the one on his girlfriend Kim Kardashian. Reggie we are still waiting......

Week 13 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Week 13 NFL schedule.

Seattle @ Dallas
Too easy Dallas in a romp.

Tennessee@Detroit
Titans could be giving 30 points and still cover another joke on Turkey day.

Arizona@Philly
Gotta go with the home team and an angry McNabb in this one. Philly wins and covers.

San Francisco@Buffalo -6.5
These two teams are nearly mirror images of themselves on offense. Buffalo is a little better on defense and Trent Edwards should be able to take advantage of the fact that SF does not pressure the passer. Buffalo by 6. San Francisco is the pick.

Baltimore@Cincy +7
Baltimore should be able to run all day against a Cincy defense giving up over 130 yds a game on the ground. Baltimore wins by 9 and covers on the road.

Indy@Cleveland +4.5
Joseph Addai should be able to have a big week against a Cleveland D that is giving up almost 146 yds a game on the ground. Only problem is that Indy's run defense has been almost as bad this season. Will Bob Sanders be 100% by the playoffs? Indy by 3. Cleveland is the pick.

Carolina@Green Bay -3
Carolina should be able to shred Green Bay's rush defense but is held in check by its own passing game. Green Bay is a tough place to play late in the year. Green Bay by 1. Carolina is the pick.

Miami@St.Louis +9
St.Louis is the worst team not named Seattle or Detroit. Miami rolls by 10 and covers.

New Orleans@Tampa Bay -4
Tampa's pass defense vs. Drew Brees and the top passing offense in the league. Tampa by 3. New Orleans is the pick.

NYG@Washington +3.5
NFC East game with possible playoff implications. Hate to pick against a desperate home dog. Giants by 1 in a sqeaker. Washington is the pick.

ATL@SDG -4.5
Wonder if San Diego regrets Michael Turner leaving. Falcons in an upset.

Pitt@NWE -1
In recent years Pats have owned Pittsburgh. This game will tell us if Matt Cassel is the real deal. Pats by 1 in a push.

DEN@NYJ -7.5
Denver has not been able to stop anyone on defense this year. Jets by 6. Denver is the pick.

KC@OAK -3
How is it possible that Oakland is giving points to anyone. Wait I forgot it's KC. Oakland by 2. KC is the pick.

BEARS@MIN -3.5
Late season division games in the black and blue division are always close. Minnesota by 1. Chicago is the pick.

JAX@HOUSTON -3
Sage Rosenfelds? Yes he has put up some good numbers against some bad defenses this year. Houston by 6 and the cover.

last week 13-3 winners ats 10-6