NFL WEEK 5

BILLS VS BROWNS -4.5 BROWNS BY 1
PATRIOTS VS BENGALS -1 PATRIOTS BY 7
LIONS VS PACKERS -7  PACKERS BY 1
SEAHAWKS VS COLTS +2 Colts by 4
RAVENS VS DOLPHINS -3 Ravens by 4
SAINTS VS BEARS -1 Saints by 4
EAGLES VS GIANTS -2 Eagles by 5
CHIEFS VS TITANS +2.5  Chiefs by 1
JAGUARS VS RAMS -11.5 Rams by 1
PANTHERS VS CARDINALS +1.5 Panthers by 16
BRONCOS VS COWBOYS +7.5 Broncos by 16
TEXANS VS 49ERS -7 49ers by 5
CHARGERS VS RAIDERS +4.5 Chargers by 7
JETS VS FALCONS -10 Falcons by 3

week 8-5-1

TOP 5 QB's Week 4 1/2

Top 5 NFL

1. Peyton Manning
2. Philip Rivers
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Matthew Stafford
5. Matt Ryan

Bottom 5

1. Blaine Gabbert
2. Matt Glennon
3. Joe Flacco
4. Eli Manning
5. Carson Palmer

NCAA TOP 5

1. Bryce Petty
2. Terrel Hunt
3. Jameis Winston
4. Teddy Bridgewater
5. Aaron Murray

Others: Bortles, Manziel, Mettenberger

Has the League figured out Kaepernick?

The 49ers offense has been unable to run the ball effectively. The QB option has been stifled with a safety spy. There is a lack of playmakers with Vernon Davis out. Now Aldon Smith is likely to be suspended due to his 2nd DUI in 2 years. How do the 49ers turn it around?

Looks like Trent Richardson needs time to acclimate to the Colts offense.

NFL WEEK 4

49ERS VS RAMS +3.5 Rams by 3
RAVENS VS BILLS +3.5 Ravens by 8
CARDS VS BUCS -2.5 CARDS BY 3
STEELERS VS VIKINGS -1 Vikings by 6
GIANTS VS CHIEFS -4 CHIEFS BY 10
COLTS VS JAGS  +7.5 Colts by 13
SEAHAWKS VS TEXANS +3 Seattle by 23
BENGALS VS BROWNS +5 BENGALS BY 4
BEARS VS LIONS -3 Bears by 8
JETS VS TITANS  -5 Jets by 1
REDSKINS VS RAIDERS +3.5 Raiders by 1
EAGLES VS BRONCOS -10 Broncos by 15
COWBOYS VS CHARGERS +1 COWBOYS BY 8
PATRIOTS VS FALCONS +2 Pats by 3
DOLPHINS VS SAINTS -5.5 Saints by 5

week 6-7-1

Better without Braxton?

Kenny Guiton
by David Briggs - ToledoBlade

After the 76-0 destruction of Florida A&M Ohio State improved to 4-0 behind a school singlke game record 6 touchdown passes by Kenny Guiton, in the FIRST Half. Many Buckeye fans who were in meltdown mode after the incumbent Braxton Miller missed another start, this time with a knee injury. It bears examining whether or not the passing style of Guiton is a better fit for the offense than that of Miller. 

Here are the CAREER stats of each for comparison:

PLAYER	COMP%	YDS	TD	INT	YDS/ATT	RUSH
Guiton	63.9	593	9	3	6.9	6.32
Miller	57.5	3406	30	11	7.8	5.12

Guiton appears to be more accurate as a passer but does not go down field as much as Miller. The supposed advantage that Miller has running is actually not much if any advantage at all. Guiton has a higher per carry average on fewer opportunities.  He is a pass first QB while Miller’s rush to pass ratio is much higher. Ohio State is currently 7^th in the nation in rushing and probably needs Guiton’s arm more than Miller’s legs.

Trent Richardson to Colts

As you probably already know Richardson the #3 overall pick two years ago has been traded from the Browns to Indy. How many yards can we expect him to rush for the remainder of the season?

With Cleveland he averaged 3.4 yds per carry just off his career average of 3.5. His touches were down two a game from 17.5 to 15.5.

He can expect his touches to be about 17-18 a game moving from the Browns who had a 90-33 pass/run ratio to a 66-52 ratio with the Colts.

The Colts average 5 yds per attempt on the ground 1.2 over the league average while Cleveland is -.4. Given those figures Richardson should average about 1-1.2 yds more per carry. I project 252 more carries * 4.5 average + 105 yards already = 1239 yds.

In other words his Fantasy value has increased substantially.

NCAA Wk 4

Clemson vs Nc st +14 Clemson by 16
Fl A&M vs Oh St -50 Ohio St by 24
FIU vs Louisville -41.5 Louisville by 24
NTexas vs UGA -33 UGA by 3
Idaho St vs Washington -49 Idaho St by 3
Maine vs NWestern -28 Nwestern by 9
Tenn vs Florida -17.5 Tenn by 10
Mich St vs Notre Dame -7 Mich st by 12
Purdue vs Wisconsin -24.5 Wisc by 21
Louisiana Monroe vs Baylor -29 Baylor by 42
Bethune Cook vs FSU -40 FSU by 14
CSU vs Alabama -41 Bama by 9
Az St vs Stanford -9 Az St by 11
SMU vs Tex A&M -28.5  Texas AM by 17
Savannah St vs Miami -59.5 Miami by 10
Texas St vs Texas Tech -27 Texas Tech by 7
Auburn vs LSU -17.5 LSU by 15
Michigan vs UConn +17.5 Michigan by 16
New Mex St vs UCLA -43 UCLA by 29

Week 9-10

NFL POWER POLL

Current Power Poll
Top 5

1. Denver
2. Green Bay
3. Seattle
4. Texans
5. San Diego

Bottom 5

1. Jags
2. Browns
3. Steelers
4. 49ers
5. Jets

TOP 5 QB's Through Week 3

NFL Top 5

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Michael Vick
3. Peyton Manning
4. Matt Ryan 
5. Russell Wilson

Bottom 5

1. Blaine Gabbert
2. Josh Freeman
3. Geno Smith
4. Brandon Weeden
5. Tom Brady

NCAA Top 5- Qualifiers

1. Bryce Petty- Baylor
2. Jameis Winston- FSU
3. Aaron Murray- UGA
4. Blake Bortles- UCF
5. Teddy Bridgewater - LOU

just outside: Mettenberger, K.Price, B.Bell, CJ Brown, Sudfield, Manziel

Has the clock struck midnight on Big Ben?

Clearly at this point the Steelers have fallen behind Baltimore and Cincy the last couple of years. Big Ben Roethlisberger has taken a beating and suffered a myriad of injuries. He has suffered 351 career sacks, 7 this year (4th worst) and his yards per pass attempt has steadily declined each year from 8.6 in 2009 (2nd in the league) to 6.3 (currently 23rd). While several QB's have performed well after age 30 his style of extending plays does not lend itself to a long career. The return of TE Heath Miller should help but the Steelers have yet to replace the production of Mike Wallace in the deep vertical passing game.

The running game has not taken any pressure off by amassing only 75 yards, 31st in the league behind the fearsome attack of Isaac Redman and Felix Jones. The offense is the slowest in the league having executed only 108 plays. Ben is continuously forcing plays and who can blame him.

Johnny Football

Johnny Football

He’s a magician. His slight of hand with a football is uncanny.  As he stated in an SEC media day interview his motto is,”Work hard, play hard.”  What are his chances of becoming a superstar at the next level?

As I stated in past articles I don’t believe that his lack of height (listed as 6’1” standing on a phone book) will be an issue. There are plenty of QB’s who have had success on the next level who are diminutive in stature. His weight is also not a major issue because it makes him more elusive running the ball and in my opinion less likely to sustain big hits. The only area that it shows up is in a lack of arm strength. Modern NFL offenses prize quick decision making and extending plays over the ability to drive the ball downfield in most offenses.

The issue as is the case with most players is being selected to a team that offers the chance to play immediately. The learning curve for rookie QB’s has been shortened vs previous years because the NFL has adapted their offenses to fit those run in college. This only makes sense because of the dollar investment in the position. Teams can’t throw salary cap money away waiting for players to develop, especially QB’s.  The teams that I think are most likely to select him are Minnesota, Tampa, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.

There have been many comparisons between Manziel and Doug Flutie, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Jeff Garcia to name a few. Here are the stats of each individual’s last year in college vs Manziel’s Freshman year:

Player	ATT	COMP %	YDS	TD	INT	RUSH
Manziel	434	68	3706	26	9	1410
Flutie	423	58.2	3634	30	13	379
RGIII	402	72.4	4293	37	6	699
Wilson	309	72.8	3175	33	4	338
Brees	473	60.5	3393	24	12	546
Garcia	356	55.1	2608	21	16	359

A few stats stick out in comparison to the men listed above. First is that Johnny uses his legs far more than anyone else on the list. He is slightly less accurate than RGII and Wilson but more so than the others. Although I would chalk some of that up to more downfield passing offenses for Flutie, Brees, and Garcia. The interceptions indicate a decision making ability on par with the others. What were the NFL rookie seasons like for each?

Player	ATT	COMP %	YDS	TD	INT	RUSH
Flutie	46	50	361	3	2	36
RGIII	393	65.6	3200	20	5	815
Wilson	393	64.1	3118	26	10	489
Brees	27	55.6	221	1	0	18
Garcia	375	60	2554	11	11	231

Given the following information. Manziel should roughly be expected to produce about 2800 yds passing, 15-18 touchdowns through the air, 60% completion percentage and 800+ rushing yards. That equates to roughly what Christian Ponder passed for last year but with the element of rushing of RGIII. A rookie performance like that would place him in the 15-20 range of best QB’s in year one. 

NFL Week 3

Chiefs vs Eagles -3 Philly by 1
Titans vs Ravens +2.5 Titans by 6

Giants vs Panthers -1 Giants by 2
Rams vs Cowboys -3.5 Dallas by 1
Bucs vs Pats -9 Pats by 2
Chargers vs Titans -3  SDG by 5
Browns vs Vikings -5Vikings by 10
Packers vs Bengals +2.5 Pack by 10
Lions vs Skins -1 Lions by 4
Cards vs Saints -7.5 Cardinals by 2
Falcons vs Dolphins -1.5 Atlanta by 1
Bills vs Jets -1 Buff by 5
Colts vs 49ers -10 Colts by 5
Jags vs Seahawks -19.5 Seattle by 18
Bears vs Steelers +2 Bears by 11
Raiders vs Broncos -15 Denver by 16


Season ats 17-12-2

Week 5-8-1

Bama vs A&M

Forbes: Texas A&M Vs. Alabama Point Spread Grows But Bettors Believe In Crimson Tide. http://google.com/producer/s/CBIw3723qgQ

NCAA WK 3

Stanford vs  Army +30 Stanford by 16
Louisville vs Kentucky  +14 Louisville by 13
Akron vs Michigan -37 Michigan by 22
Tulsa vs Oklahoma -24 Sooners by 8
UCLA vs Nebraska -4  UCLA by 6
Alabama vs Texas AM +8 Texas Am by 13
Tennessee vs Oregon -28 Oregon by 14
Nevada vs FSU -35.5 FSU by 9
Washington vs Illinois +10 Washington by 3
Ohio St vs California +15.5 Ohio St by 15
Kent St vs LSU -36.5 LSU by 27
Vanderbilt vs South Carolina -14 Vandy by 13
Lamar vs Ok St -47 Ok St by 22
Notre Dame vs Purdue +21 Irish by 8
Ole Miss vs Texas -3 Texas by 1
Western Mich vs Northwestern -30.5 Northwestern by 20
Wisconsin vs Az St -5 Az St by 8

9-5-2

Week 2

NYJ vs Pats -13 Pats by 3 take Jets
Panthers vs Bills +3 Buffalo by 7
Browns vs Ravens -6.5 Ravens by 7
Vikings vs Bears -6.5 Bears by 3 take Vikings
Cowboys vs Chiefs -3 Kc by 6
Redskins vs Packers -6.5 Pack by 7
Titans vs Texans -9 Texans by 6 take titans
Dolphins vs Colts -3 Dolphins by 4
Chargers vs Eagles -6.5 Eagles by 5 take SDG
Rams vs Falcons -7 Rams by 7
Lions vs Cardinals. PK Lions by 8
Saints vs Bucs +3 Saints by 5
Broncos vs Giants +4.5 Denver by 17
Jags vs Raiders -5.5 Raiders by 7
49ers vs Seattle +2.5 49ers by 5
Steelers vs Cincy -7.5 Cincy by 7 take Pitt

Season ats 7-7-1
Wk 10-5-1