Johnny Football
He’s a magician. His slight of hand with a football is
uncanny. As he stated in an SEC media
day interview his motto is,”Work hard, play hard.” What are his chances of becoming a superstar
at the next level?
As I stated in past articles I don’t believe that his lack
of height (listed as 6’1” standing on a phone book) will be an issue. There are
plenty of QB’s who have had success on the next level who are diminutive in
stature. His weight is also not a major issue because it makes him more elusive
running the ball and in my opinion less likely to sustain big hits. The only
area that it shows up is in a lack of arm strength. Modern NFL offenses prize
quick decision making and extending plays over the ability to drive the ball
downfield in most offenses.
The issue as is the case with most players is being selected
to a team that offers the chance to play immediately. The learning curve for
rookie QB’s has been shortened vs previous years because the NFL has adapted
their offenses to fit those run in college. This only makes sense because of
the dollar investment in the position. Teams can’t throw salary cap money away
waiting for players to develop, especially QB’s. The teams that I think are most likely to
select him are Minnesota, Tampa, Cleveland, Tennessee, and Jacksonville.
There have been many comparisons between Manziel and Doug
Flutie, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, and Jeff Garcia to name a few. Here
are the stats of each individual’s last year in college vs Manziel’s Freshman
year:
Player
|
ATT
|
COMP %
|
YDS
|
TD
|
INT
|
RUSH
|
Manziel
|
434
|
68
|
3706
|
26
|
9
|
1410
|
Flutie
|
423
|
58.2
|
3634
|
30
|
13
|
379
|
RGIII
|
402
|
72.4
|
4293
|
37
|
6
|
699
|
Wilson
|
309
|
72.8
|
3175
|
33
|
4
|
338
|
Brees
|
473
|
60.5
|
3393
|
24
|
12
|
546
|
Garcia
|
356
|
55.1
|
2608
|
21
|
16
|
359
|
A few stats stick out in comparison to the men listed above.
First is that Johnny uses his legs far more than anyone else on the list. He is
slightly less accurate than RGII and Wilson but more so than the others.
Although I would chalk some of that up to more downfield passing offenses for
Flutie, Brees, and Garcia. The interceptions indicate a decision making ability
on par with the others. What were the NFL rookie seasons like for each?
Player
|
ATT
|
COMP %
|
YDS
|
TD
|
INT
|
RUSH
|
Flutie
|
46
|
50
|
361
|
3
|
2
|
36
|
RGIII
|
393
|
65.6
|
3200
|
20
|
5
|
815
|
Wilson
|
393
|
64.1
|
3118
|
26
|
10
|
489
|
Brees
|
27
|
55.6
|
221
|
1
|
0
|
18
|
Garcia
|
375
|
60
|
2554
|
11
|
11
|
231
|
Given the following information. Manziel should roughly be
expected to produce about 2800 yds passing, 15-18 touchdowns through the air,
60% completion percentage and 800+ rushing yards. That equates to roughly what
Christian Ponder passed for last year but with the element of rushing of RGIII.
A rookie performance like that would place him in the 15-20 range of best QB’s
in year one.
