NFL Playoff Predictions

• ATL@AZ +2  Cards by 1 and points
• Indy @ SDG  +1  Indy by 1
• Bal @ Mia  +3 Baltimore by 1, Miami w/points
• Philly@ Min +3  Eagles by 1, Min w/points

playoffs: winners 3-1 ats: 1-3

NFL AWARDS

Here are the NFL's best this year as I see it:

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, IND 

After a slow start coming back from injury the Colts were 3-4 and in danger of not making the playoffs. Since then the Colts have won 8 in a row and Manning has 16 Td's vs. 3 Int's. 

OFFENSIVE POY: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

Without question the best runner in the NFL. 

Defensive POY: James Harrison, LB, Steelers

The best defensive player on the best defense. The guy was everywhere this year with 67 tackles, 34 assists, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception.

Rookie: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

see my previous article 

Coach: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee

Lead his team to the NFL's best record despite the troubles of its young QB Vince Young.

OFFENSE

• QB  PEYTON MANNING, IND
• RB  ADRIAN PETERSON, MIN
• RB  CLINTON PORTIS, WAS
• TE  TONY GONZALEZ, KC
• OT  JAMMAL BROWN, NO
• OT  DAVID DIEHL, NYG
• C      Shaun O' Hara, NYG
• G     Chris Snee, NYG
• G     Steve Hutchinson, MIN
• WR  ANDRE JOHNSON, HOU
• WR CALVIN JOHNSON, DET

Defense

• DT  ALBERT HAYNESWORTH, TENN
• DT  Kris Jenkins, NYJ
• DE  DeMarcus Ware, DAL
• DE   Joey Porter, MIA
• LB   Jon Beason, CAR
• LB   James Farrior, Pit
• LB   James Harrison, Pit
• CB   Courtland Finnegan, Tenn
• CB  Asante Samuel, Phi
• S   Troy Palamalu, Pit
• S   Michael Griffin, Tenn

Christmas comes early for Mark Teixeira and the Yankees

According to SI.com Mark Texiera has signed an 8 year 180 million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. Once again the Yankees have outbid the Red Sox for a free agent. With a new stadium and the revenue that the luxury seating already largely sold the Yankees have a seemingly endless stream of revenue. New York who has not won a World Series since 2000 is on the hook for 27 million dollars in luxury tax from last year's team payroll. Despite this, the Yanks payroll had already been trimmed by 82 million dollars with the retirement of Mike Mussina and free agency of Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, and Bobby Abreu. There still appears to be 15-20 million still available if they spend to the same level this year even after the signings ofNick Swisher, C.C. Sabathia 23 million/yr and A.J. Burnett 18.5 million/yr. Manny Ramirez appears to have few teams with either the resources or inclination to sign him which makes the Yankees and Dodgers the likely landing spots. 

So what type of impact will his signing have on the Yanks offense? Well according to baseball-reference.com his runs created figure was 134 runs last year which is .83/game over 162 games. His offense is replacing that of Giambi who was 94 RC's last year a net improvement of 40 RC's or a quarter of a run a game. Last year the Yankees were far from the Bronx bombers of the past averaging just 4.87 runs/game 7th in the American League. If they improve to 5.12 per game with the addition of Texiera they would've been 3rd last year behind Texas and Boston. Using the most basic version of Bill James pythagorian won lost projections the Yankees would have won 91 1/2 games last year...let's round it to 92 games, he is good with the glove by the way, still 5 games behind Tampa's 97 wins last year. The offensive wild card is Nick Swisher who was 37 RC less than Abreu last year which could offset Teixeira's contribution somewhat if he doesn't bounce back. 

Looking at the pitching acquisitions, Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson combined for a 5.59 ERA and just over 193 IP last year. Burnett should save the Yankees about 20 runs and Sabathia another 18-20 runs over what Mussina did. Making the adjustments, thank you Mr. Pythagoris, that brings the Yankees to about 96 games which puts them square between the 97 wins the Rays and 95 wins garnered by the Red Sox last year. So the deals pull them at least even if not making them the prohibitive favorites in the AL East.   

week 17

• Jax @ Bal -12 1/2  Baltimore by 6, Jax w/points
• Oak @Tb -14  Tampa by 11, Oak w/points
• Nwe @ Buff +7  Nwe by 3, Buff w/points
• KC @ CINCY -3  Cincy by 2, KC w/points
• Mia @ NYJ -2 1/2  JETS by 1, Miami w/points
• Dallas @ Philly -1 1/2  Philly by 5 and cover
• Was @ SF -3  Skins by 1, San Fran w/points push
• Sea @ AZ -6  Zona by 11 and cover
• Denver @Sdg -9  Chargers by 1, Denver w/points
• nyg @ min -6 1/2  Vikings by 1, Giants w/ points
• Clev @ Pitt -10 1/2  Steelers by 13 and cover
• Tenn@Indy +3  Indy by 1 and points
• Car @ NO  +3    Saints by 6 and points
• Chi @ Hou -3  Houston by 6 and cover
• Stl @ Atl -15   Falcons by 9, Rams w/15
• Det @ GB -9 1/2  Pack by 12 and cover

week: winners: 11-4  ats: 11-3-1   season: winners: 62-30  ats: 60-30-2 (.667)

week 16

• Indy @Jax +6 Indy by 7 and cover
  
• Bal @ Dal -4   Dal by 3, Ravens w/ 3
  
• No @Det +7   Saints by 10 and the cover
  
• Pitt @ Tenn +2  Steelers by 1, Titans w/2
• Sf @Stl +5 1/2  Frisco by 5, Rams getting 5 1/2
• Cincy @ Clev -3 Browns by 4 and cover
• Mia @ KC + 3 1/2  Fins by 2, KC getting the points
• AZ @ NWE -7 1/2  Nwe by 2, take AZ w/points
• SDG @ Tampa -3 1/2  Bucs by 6 and cover
• Hou @ OAK +7  Houston by 6, Oak w/ 7
• NYJ @ SEA +3 1/2  Jets by 5 and cover
• BUFF @ DEN -6 1/2  Denver by 4, Buff w/6 1/2
• ATL @ MIN -3  Minn by 4 and cover
• PHILLY @ WASH +5  Philly by 1, Skins w/5
• CAR @NYG -3  Giants by 5 and cover
• GB @CHI -4  Chitown by 1, Pack w/4

week: winners 7-9  ats: 10-6  season: winners 51-26 ats: 49-27-1  (.640)

week 15 bets

• NO@CHI -3 New Orleans by 5 and the cover
• TB@ATL -3 ATL by 1, Tampa with the 3 push
• Tenn@HOU +3 Titans by 1, take Houston with the 3
  
• Wash@Cincy +7 Skins by 8 and the cover
• GB@JAX +1 1/2 take Jax in an upset by 2
• SF@MIA -6 1/2 Miami by 6, Niners w/points
• Det@Indy -17 Indy by 11, Detroit w/points
• SDG@KC +5 SDG by 2, KC w/points
• Buff@NYJ -7 JETS by 3, Buff w/points
• Den@Car -7 Carolina by 2, Denver getting 7
• NWE@OAK +7 1/2 NWE by 6, Oak w/7 1/2
• Pitt@Bal -2 Baltimore by 3 and the cover
• NYG@DAL -3 Dallas by 1, Giants w/3
• Clev@Philly -14 PHILLY by 15 covers
  

week: winners:10-4  ats: 7-6-1 
season 44-17 winners 39-21-1spread (.650)

Week 14 Best Bets

1. Minnesota@Det +10 1/2 Minnesota by 6, Detroit covers
   
2. Cincy@Colts -13 1/2 Colts by 6, Cincy covers
   
3. Atl@Saints -3 Saints by 5 and the cover
   
4. Philly@NYG -7 Giants by 6, Philly covers
   
5. HOUSTON@GB -6 Green Bay by 4, Houston covers
   
6. CLEV@TENN -14 Titans by 12, Browns cover
   
7. JAX@CHI -6 1/2 Chicago by 1, Jax covers
   
8. NYJ@49ERS +3 1/2 Jets by 3, Niners cover
   
9. NWE@SEATTLE +6 Pats by 3, Seattle covers
   
10. KC@DENVER -9 Denver by 6, KC covers
    
11. MIA@BUFF -1 Miami by 1 on the road
    
12. DALLAS@PITT -3 Steelers by 4 and the cover
    
13. STL@AZ -14 Arizona by 17 and the cover
    
14. WASH@BALT -5 Baltimore by 4, Skins cover
    
15. TB@CAR -3 Carolina by 1, Tampa covers

winners 11-4, ats 10-5








last week winners 10-6 spread 12-4...season 34-13 winners 32-15 spread (.681)

Is Jim Rice a Hall of Famer

Probably the hottest debate surrounding the Hall of Fame selection this year is the electability of Jim Rice. I will present the fact to you off data I gleemed off of www.baseball-reference.com.

First the positives. According to Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, Rice is 89th all time just ahead of Duke Snider and behind Gary Sheffield. The most similar players listed on the site stats wise who are in the Hall of Fame are Orlando Cepeda, Duke Snider, Billy Williams, and Willie Stargell. Rice is 29th in career MVP voting credited with 3.15 shares winning the 1978 MVP. His career batting average of .298 is the same as Mickey Mantle and Barry Bonds. He has more career total bases than Joe Dimaggio.

Now the negatives. It would be inaccurate to label him as primarily a DH as he played 1503 of 2089 career games in the outfield. But it would be accurate to label him as a fielder with poor range even though he played half his games in Fenway Park with its miniscule left field. His range factor was 1.84 in a league where the average was about 2.16 plays a game. He was a poor postseason hitter with a career average of .225 in 3 series. His .352 on base percentage is the same as Rafael Furcal. He was painfully slow as he got older and finished 6th all time in grounding into double plays.

The I don't knows. He has 295 Adjusted Batting Runs in his career, more than Harold Baines, less than Jose Canseco. He was on 2 pennant winning teams both who lost in the World Series.

Comparing the visible stats:
Rice .298 avg 382 hr 1451 rbi
Cepeda .297 avg 417 hr 1365 rbi
Snider .295 avg 358 hr 1333 rbi
Williams .290 avg 434 hr 1475 rbi
Stargel .282 avg 475 hr 1540 rbi

Is Reggie Bush a Bust?

Watching the Saints vs. Bucs game this weekend I couldn't help but think back to the 06' NFL draft when teams were clamoring for a chance to draft him after an electrifying couple of years at USC. The Houston Texans drafted DL Mario Williams and their GM was basically ridden out of town while Katrina stricken New Orleans cheered wildly when they got Bush. How things change. As of this writing Bush has amassed 1440 yds rushing in 36 games 1557 receiving a grand total of 23 Td's (4 on punt returns) and 13 fumbles. Compare that with his college numbers in 39 games (3169 rush yds, 1301 receiving yds, 38 td's from scrimmage) and his numbers pale in comparison.

At 6'0" and 200-205 lbs Bush is a better receiver than running back. He's a tweener, too short to be a full time receiver, not powerful enough to be a 1st down back. New Orleans has tried to utilize his ability to make defenders miss by putting him in space throwing the ball to him almost 6x a game but his ability to break tackles has been poor. He averages a pedestrian 3.6 yds/carry on the ground and 7.5 yds/catch for his career. In the same 06' draft running back Maurice Jones-Drew from Pac-10 rival UCLA was picked at the tail end of the 2nd round and was considered at 5'6 1/2 208 lbs. to be far too small to be a star in the NFL. All he has done is eclipse Bush's numbers with 2212 yds rushing, 1236 yds receiving and an astounding 35 combined touchdowns. Meanwhile Mario Williams has also been more productive with 26.5 sacks and 141 tackes in 43 games for Houston. Thus far the only bigger bust than Bush is the one on his girlfriend Kim Kardashian. Reggie we are still waiting......

Brock Lesnar "The Next Big Thing?"

In the aftermath of Brock Lesnar's defeat of an aging 45 year old Randy Couture the mantle of the face of the UFC has been placed on his large shoulders. He is the type of athlete that the UFC can build their brand around with an acting background from his days in pro wrestling's WWE and his 6'3" 280 lb+ size. Let's face it size matters in the ring and in the consciousness of the public who likes their champios to look big and mean. The only thing that Lesnar lacks is experience. He is just 4 fights into his UFC career and will face the winner of the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir bout. The much smaller Mir, a submission artist, beat Lesnar with an armbar in their last matchup his only loss. Nogueira a veteran of 36 bouts also has the experience to beat Lesnar. In either matchup Lesnar would attempt to utilize his superior size and athleticism to win. In my opinion Mir and Nogueira represent the best chance to take his title. While none of the other UFC heavyweights has the right blend of size and submission skills to pull it off Affliction champ Fedor Emelianenko does. Sadly this bout will not happen.

How good is Lebron James?

With all this 2010 fee agent talk of Lebron going to the Knicks I thought it might be a good time to compare him with other players at the same age.

Pts Reb A Win Shares@23
James 11107 2802 2667 14.9
Jordan 8630 1477 1396 16.1
Magic 6136 2841 3327 12.6
Kobe 10658 2458 2060 12.9

His total statistics exceed the great MJ, Magic, and Kobe but keep in mind that Magic and Michael missed a large number of games early in their careers to injury and Kobe was part of a strike year in which a limited number of games was played. By this point Kobe had played in 3 NBA championships and had won 2, Magic had been in 4 championship series and won 2, and Michael had lost two 1st round conference games before advancing to the conference semi-finals losing to a great Detroit club. Lebron has lost a championship and advanced to a semifinals thus far but will not be considered in the same pantheon as the others till he wins a title which is obviously not lost on him.

Looking at Win Shares a statistic that is supposed to sum up a player's offensive and defensive contributions, James appears to be ahead of Magic and Kobe at the same age but significantly behind MJ. James is not nearly the defender that Jordan was and probably never will be. Jordan made a huge jump at age 24 to a Win Share total of 20.3 the highest of his career.Magic didn't hit his stride until 27 according to this metric, and Kobe took a big leap up to 15.1. With his numbers up above his carrer averages thus far we can expect Lebron to be in the 16-18 range this year.

Matt Cassel a star is born?

The last 2 weeks Cassel has thrown for over 400 yards. Is he a bona fide superstar in the making, a solid NFL starter, or just plain lucky to have picked apart two of the worst pass defenses in football in Miami and the Jets? His improvement has coincided with better pass protection as New England has gotten healthier on the offfensive line and a more adventurous game plan calling for more passes. Like his predecessor Tom Brady early in his carrer Cassel has been criticized for not being able to complete deep passes. He is also apt to run after his 2nd read a common problem for most 1st year starters. At this point he is past the training wheels stage and seems like a solid starting qb in the NFL. His numbers compare favorably to other starters his age and it will be a very interesting offseason as his contract is up this year.



Name Age yds td int
Matt Cassel NWE 26 2615 13 8
Aaron Rodgers GNB 25 2599 17 9
Jason Campbell WAS 27 2328 10 3
Eli Manning NYG 27 2319 18 7
Philip Rivers SDG 27 2806 23 10
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 26 2233 11 11
Trent Edwards BUF 25 2266 10 10
Kyle Orton CHI 26 2049 11 4
Tony Romo DAL 28 2228 18 7
Derek Anderson CLE 25 1505 9 8
Ryan Fitzpatrick CIN 26 1218 6 7
Matt Schaub HOU 27 1762 10 8
Dan Orlovsky DET 25 1033 5 4

Week 13 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Week 13 NFL schedule.

Seattle @ Dallas
Too easy Dallas in a romp.

Tennessee@Detroit
Titans could be giving 30 points and still cover another joke on Turkey day.

Arizona@Philly
Gotta go with the home team and an angry McNabb in this one. Philly wins and covers.

San Francisco@Buffalo -6.5
These two teams are nearly mirror images of themselves on offense. Buffalo is a little better on defense and Trent Edwards should be able to take advantage of the fact that SF does not pressure the passer. Buffalo by 6. San Francisco is the pick.

Baltimore@Cincy +7
Baltimore should be able to run all day against a Cincy defense giving up over 130 yds a game on the ground. Baltimore wins by 9 and covers on the road.

Indy@Cleveland +4.5
Joseph Addai should be able to have a big week against a Cleveland D that is giving up almost 146 yds a game on the ground. Only problem is that Indy's run defense has been almost as bad this season. Will Bob Sanders be 100% by the playoffs? Indy by 3. Cleveland is the pick.

Carolina@Green Bay -3
Carolina should be able to shred Green Bay's rush defense but is held in check by its own passing game. Green Bay is a tough place to play late in the year. Green Bay by 1. Carolina is the pick.

Miami@St.Louis +9
St.Louis is the worst team not named Seattle or Detroit. Miami rolls by 10 and covers.

New Orleans@Tampa Bay -4
Tampa's pass defense vs. Drew Brees and the top passing offense in the league. Tampa by 3. New Orleans is the pick.

NYG@Washington +3.5
NFC East game with possible playoff implications. Hate to pick against a desperate home dog. Giants by 1 in a sqeaker. Washington is the pick.

ATL@SDG -4.5
Wonder if San Diego regrets Michael Turner leaving. Falcons in an upset.

Pitt@NWE -1
In recent years Pats have owned Pittsburgh. This game will tell us if Matt Cassel is the real deal. Pats by 1 in a push.

DEN@NYJ -7.5
Denver has not been able to stop anyone on defense this year. Jets by 6. Denver is the pick.

KC@OAK -3
How is it possible that Oakland is giving points to anyone. Wait I forgot it's KC. Oakland by 2. KC is the pick.

BEARS@MIN -3.5
Late season division games in the black and blue division are always close. Minnesota by 1. Chicago is the pick.

JAX@HOUSTON -3
Sage Rosenfelds? Yes he has put up some good numbers against some bad defenses this year. Houston by 6 and the cover.

last week 13-3 winners ats 10-6

Best Rookie QB Ever

Is Matt Ryan the best rookie QB ever? On ESPN's Mike and Mike show, Greenburg indicated that Ryan may be having the best rookie season for a quarterback since Dan Marino. He has benefited from an excellent running game and strong offensive line but does show poise that is rare in rookie qb's.



Let's look at some of the numbers. Since 1970 there have been 3 rookie quarterbacks to win the AP Offensive rookie of the year. Dennis Shaw was on a bad Buffalo team that went 3-8-1 in 1970 an he threw for 2507 yds, 10 td's with 20 Int's. Ben Rothlisberger was 13-0 in 2004 with 2621 yds, 17 td's and 11 int's. Finally Vince Young was 8-5 with 12 td's and 13 int's.

Among Hall of Famers who started a majority of their team's games as a rookie only Otto Graham and Dan Marino have better numbers. On the balance I would say that I would place him in the top 5 behind only Graham, Marino, Rothlisberger, and somewhere around Jim Kelly at this point of the season. Not to be forgotten is another rookie this year Joe Flacco who has done an excellent job himself of guiding a 7-4 Ravens team with 1996 yds 10 td's and 9 int's.

	Name	record	yds		td				int
.	aikman	0-11	1749		9				18
.	baugh	8-14	1127		8				14
.	bradshaw	3-5	1410		6				24
.	elway	4-6	1663		7				14
.	fouts	0-5-1	1126		6				13
.	graham	12-2	1834		17				5	age 25
.	griese	3-7	2005		15				18
.	jurgensen	4-8	470		5				8
.	kelly	4-12	3593		22				17
.	luckman	8-3	636		5				4
.	marino	7-2	2210		20				6
.	moon	3-13	3338		12				14
.	namath	3-5-1	2220		18				15
.	tarkenton	2-8	1997		18				17
.	tittle	7-7	2522		16				9
.	unitas	4-3	1498		9				10
.	Average		1837		12				12
	Ryan	7-4	2418		11				6