Brock Lesnar "The Next Big Thing?"

In the aftermath of Brock Lesnar's defeat of an aging 45 year old Randy Couture the mantle of the face of the UFC has been placed on his large shoulders. He is the type of athlete that the UFC can build their brand around with an acting background from his days in pro wrestling's WWE and his 6'3" 280 lb+ size. Let's face it size matters in the ring and in the consciousness of the public who likes their champios to look big and mean. The only thing that Lesnar lacks is experience. He is just 4 fights into his UFC career and will face the winner of the Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Frank Mir bout. The much smaller Mir, a submission artist, beat Lesnar with an armbar in their last matchup his only loss. Nogueira a veteran of 36 bouts also has the experience to beat Lesnar. In either matchup Lesnar would attempt to utilize his superior size and athleticism to win. In my opinion Mir and Nogueira represent the best chance to take his title. While none of the other UFC heavyweights has the right blend of size and submission skills to pull it off Affliction champ Fedor Emelianenko does. Sadly this bout will not happen.

How good is Lebron James?

With all this 2010 fee agent talk of Lebron going to the Knicks I thought it might be a good time to compare him with other players at the same age.

Pts Reb A Win Shares@23
James 11107 2802 2667 14.9
Jordan 8630 1477 1396 16.1
Magic 6136 2841 3327 12.6
Kobe 10658 2458 2060 12.9

His total statistics exceed the great MJ, Magic, and Kobe but keep in mind that Magic and Michael missed a large number of games early in their careers to injury and Kobe was part of a strike year in which a limited number of games was played. By this point Kobe had played in 3 NBA championships and had won 2, Magic had been in 4 championship series and won 2, and Michael had lost two 1st round conference games before advancing to the conference semi-finals losing to a great Detroit club. Lebron has lost a championship and advanced to a semifinals thus far but will not be considered in the same pantheon as the others till he wins a title which is obviously not lost on him.

Looking at Win Shares a statistic that is supposed to sum up a player's offensive and defensive contributions, James appears to be ahead of Magic and Kobe at the same age but significantly behind MJ. James is not nearly the defender that Jordan was and probably never will be. Jordan made a huge jump at age 24 to a Win Share total of 20.3 the highest of his career.Magic didn't hit his stride until 27 according to this metric, and Kobe took a big leap up to 15.1. With his numbers up above his carrer averages thus far we can expect Lebron to be in the 16-18 range this year.

Matt Cassel a star is born?

The last 2 weeks Cassel has thrown for over 400 yards. Is he a bona fide superstar in the making, a solid NFL starter, or just plain lucky to have picked apart two of the worst pass defenses in football in Miami and the Jets? His improvement has coincided with better pass protection as New England has gotten healthier on the offfensive line and a more adventurous game plan calling for more passes. Like his predecessor Tom Brady early in his carrer Cassel has been criticized for not being able to complete deep passes. He is also apt to run after his 2nd read a common problem for most 1st year starters. At this point he is past the training wheels stage and seems like a solid starting qb in the NFL. His numbers compare favorably to other starters his age and it will be a very interesting offseason as his contract is up this year.



Name Age yds td int
Matt Cassel NWE 26 2615 13 8
Aaron Rodgers GNB 25 2599 17 9
Jason Campbell WAS 27 2328 10 3
Eli Manning NYG 27 2319 18 7
Philip Rivers SDG 27 2806 23 10
Ben Roethlisberger PIT 26 2233 11 11
Trent Edwards BUF 25 2266 10 10
Kyle Orton CHI 26 2049 11 4
Tony Romo DAL 28 2228 18 7
Derek Anderson CLE 25 1505 9 8
Ryan Fitzpatrick CIN 26 1218 6 7
Matt Schaub HOU 27 1762 10 8
Dan Orlovsky DET 25 1033 5 4

Week 13 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the Week 13 NFL schedule.

Seattle @ Dallas
Too easy Dallas in a romp.

Tennessee@Detroit
Titans could be giving 30 points and still cover another joke on Turkey day.

Arizona@Philly
Gotta go with the home team and an angry McNabb in this one. Philly wins and covers.

San Francisco@Buffalo -6.5
These two teams are nearly mirror images of themselves on offense. Buffalo is a little better on defense and Trent Edwards should be able to take advantage of the fact that SF does not pressure the passer. Buffalo by 6. San Francisco is the pick.

Baltimore@Cincy +7
Baltimore should be able to run all day against a Cincy defense giving up over 130 yds a game on the ground. Baltimore wins by 9 and covers on the road.

Indy@Cleveland +4.5
Joseph Addai should be able to have a big week against a Cleveland D that is giving up almost 146 yds a game on the ground. Only problem is that Indy's run defense has been almost as bad this season. Will Bob Sanders be 100% by the playoffs? Indy by 3. Cleveland is the pick.

Carolina@Green Bay -3
Carolina should be able to shred Green Bay's rush defense but is held in check by its own passing game. Green Bay is a tough place to play late in the year. Green Bay by 1. Carolina is the pick.

Miami@St.Louis +9
St.Louis is the worst team not named Seattle or Detroit. Miami rolls by 10 and covers.

New Orleans@Tampa Bay -4
Tampa's pass defense vs. Drew Brees and the top passing offense in the league. Tampa by 3. New Orleans is the pick.

NYG@Washington +3.5
NFC East game with possible playoff implications. Hate to pick against a desperate home dog. Giants by 1 in a sqeaker. Washington is the pick.

ATL@SDG -4.5
Wonder if San Diego regrets Michael Turner leaving. Falcons in an upset.

Pitt@NWE -1
In recent years Pats have owned Pittsburgh. This game will tell us if Matt Cassel is the real deal. Pats by 1 in a push.

DEN@NYJ -7.5
Denver has not been able to stop anyone on defense this year. Jets by 6. Denver is the pick.

KC@OAK -3
How is it possible that Oakland is giving points to anyone. Wait I forgot it's KC. Oakland by 2. KC is the pick.

BEARS@MIN -3.5
Late season division games in the black and blue division are always close. Minnesota by 1. Chicago is the pick.

JAX@HOUSTON -3
Sage Rosenfelds? Yes he has put up some good numbers against some bad defenses this year. Houston by 6 and the cover.

last week 13-3 winners ats 10-6

Best Rookie QB Ever

Is Matt Ryan the best rookie QB ever? On ESPN's Mike and Mike show, Greenburg indicated that Ryan may be having the best rookie season for a quarterback since Dan Marino. He has benefited from an excellent running game and strong offensive line but does show poise that is rare in rookie qb's.



Let's look at some of the numbers. Since 1970 there have been 3 rookie quarterbacks to win the AP Offensive rookie of the year. Dennis Shaw was on a bad Buffalo team that went 3-8-1 in 1970 an he threw for 2507 yds, 10 td's with 20 Int's. Ben Rothlisberger was 13-0 in 2004 with 2621 yds, 17 td's and 11 int's. Finally Vince Young was 8-5 with 12 td's and 13 int's.

Among Hall of Famers who started a majority of their team's games as a rookie only Otto Graham and Dan Marino have better numbers. On the balance I would say that I would place him in the top 5 behind only Graham, Marino, Rothlisberger, and somewhere around Jim Kelly at this point of the season. Not to be forgotten is another rookie this year Joe Flacco who has done an excellent job himself of guiding a 7-4 Ravens team with 1996 yds 10 td's and 9 int's.

	Name	record	yds		td				int
.	aikman	0-11	1749		9				18
.	baugh	8-14	1127		8				14
.	bradshaw	3-5	1410		6				24
.	elway	4-6	1663		7				14
.	fouts	0-5-1	1126		6				13
.	graham	12-2	1834		17				5	age 25
.	griese	3-7	2005		15				18
.	jurgensen	4-8	470		5				8
.	kelly	4-12	3593		22				17
.	luckman	8-3	636		5				4
.	marino	7-2	2210		20				6
.	moon	3-13	3338		12				14
.	namath	3-5-1	2220		18				15
.	tarkenton	2-8	1997		18				17
.	tittle	7-7	2522		16				9
.	unitas	4-3	1498		9				10
.	Average		1837		12				12
	Ryan	7-4	2418		11				6