NFL Playoff Predictions

• ATL@AZ +2  Cards by 1 and points
• Indy @ SDG  +1  Indy by 1
• Bal @ Mia  +3 Baltimore by 1, Miami w/points
• Philly@ Min +3  Eagles by 1, Min w/points

playoffs: winners 3-1 ats: 1-3

NFL AWARDS

Here are the NFL's best this year as I see it:

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, IND 

After a slow start coming back from injury the Colts were 3-4 and in danger of not making the playoffs. Since then the Colts have won 8 in a row and Manning has 16 Td's vs. 3 Int's. 

OFFENSIVE POY: Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN

Without question the best runner in the NFL. 

Defensive POY: James Harrison, LB, Steelers

The best defensive player on the best defense. The guy was everywhere this year with 67 tackles, 34 assists, 16 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and an interception.

Rookie: Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

see my previous article 

Coach: Jeff Fisher, Tennessee

Lead his team to the NFL's best record despite the troubles of its young QB Vince Young.

OFFENSE

• QB  PEYTON MANNING, IND
• RB  ADRIAN PETERSON, MIN
• RB  CLINTON PORTIS, WAS
• TE  TONY GONZALEZ, KC
• OT  JAMMAL BROWN, NO
• OT  DAVID DIEHL, NYG
• C      Shaun O' Hara, NYG
• G     Chris Snee, NYG
• G     Steve Hutchinson, MIN
• WR  ANDRE JOHNSON, HOU
• WR CALVIN JOHNSON, DET

Defense

• DT  ALBERT HAYNESWORTH, TENN
• DT  Kris Jenkins, NYJ
• DE  DeMarcus Ware, DAL
• DE   Joey Porter, MIA
• LB   Jon Beason, CAR
• LB   James Farrior, Pit
• LB   James Harrison, Pit
• CB   Courtland Finnegan, Tenn
• CB  Asante Samuel, Phi
• S   Troy Palamalu, Pit
• S   Michael Griffin, Tenn

Christmas comes early for Mark Teixeira and the Yankees

According to SI.com Mark Texiera has signed an 8 year 180 million dollar deal with the New York Yankees. Once again the Yankees have outbid the Red Sox for a free agent. With a new stadium and the revenue that the luxury seating already largely sold the Yankees have a seemingly endless stream of revenue. New York who has not won a World Series since 2000 is on the hook for 27 million dollars in luxury tax from last year's team payroll. Despite this, the Yanks payroll had already been trimmed by 82 million dollars with the retirement of Mike Mussina and free agency of Jason Giambi, Carl Pavano, and Bobby Abreu. There still appears to be 15-20 million still available if they spend to the same level this year even after the signings ofNick Swisher, C.C. Sabathia 23 million/yr and A.J. Burnett 18.5 million/yr. Manny Ramirez appears to have few teams with either the resources or inclination to sign him which makes the Yankees and Dodgers the likely landing spots. 

So what type of impact will his signing have on the Yanks offense? Well according to baseball-reference.com his runs created figure was 134 runs last year which is .83/game over 162 games. His offense is replacing that of Giambi who was 94 RC's last year a net improvement of 40 RC's or a quarter of a run a game. Last year the Yankees were far from the Bronx bombers of the past averaging just 4.87 runs/game 7th in the American League. If they improve to 5.12 per game with the addition of Texiera they would've been 3rd last year behind Texas and Boston. Using the most basic version of Bill James pythagorian won lost projections the Yankees would have won 91 1/2 games last year...let's round it to 92 games, he is good with the glove by the way, still 5 games behind Tampa's 97 wins last year. The offensive wild card is Nick Swisher who was 37 RC less than Abreu last year which could offset Teixeira's contribution somewhat if he doesn't bounce back. 

Looking at the pitching acquisitions, Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson combined for a 5.59 ERA and just over 193 IP last year. Burnett should save the Yankees about 20 runs and Sabathia another 18-20 runs over what Mussina did. Making the adjustments, thank you Mr. Pythagoris, that brings the Yankees to about 96 games which puts them square between the 97 wins the Rays and 95 wins garnered by the Red Sox last year. So the deals pull them at least even if not making them the prohibitive favorites in the AL East.   

week 17

• Jax @ Bal -12 1/2  Baltimore by 6, Jax w/points
• Oak @Tb -14  Tampa by 11, Oak w/points
• Nwe @ Buff +7  Nwe by 3, Buff w/points
• KC @ CINCY -3  Cincy by 2, KC w/points
• Mia @ NYJ -2 1/2  JETS by 1, Miami w/points
• Dallas @ Philly -1 1/2  Philly by 5 and cover
• Was @ SF -3  Skins by 1, San Fran w/points push
• Sea @ AZ -6  Zona by 11 and cover
• Denver @Sdg -9  Chargers by 1, Denver w/points
• nyg @ min -6 1/2  Vikings by 1, Giants w/ points
• Clev @ Pitt -10 1/2  Steelers by 13 and cover
• Tenn@Indy +3  Indy by 1 and points
• Car @ NO  +3    Saints by 6 and points
• Chi @ Hou -3  Houston by 6 and cover
• Stl @ Atl -15   Falcons by 9, Rams w/15
• Det @ GB -9 1/2  Pack by 12 and cover

week: winners: 11-4  ats: 11-3-1   season: winners: 62-30  ats: 60-30-2 (.667)

week 16

• Indy @Jax +6 Indy by 7 and cover
  
• Bal @ Dal -4   Dal by 3, Ravens w/ 3
  
• No @Det +7   Saints by 10 and the cover
  
• Pitt @ Tenn +2  Steelers by 1, Titans w/2
• Sf @Stl +5 1/2  Frisco by 5, Rams getting 5 1/2
• Cincy @ Clev -3 Browns by 4 and cover
• Mia @ KC + 3 1/2  Fins by 2, KC getting the points
• AZ @ NWE -7 1/2  Nwe by 2, take AZ w/points
• SDG @ Tampa -3 1/2  Bucs by 6 and cover
• Hou @ OAK +7  Houston by 6, Oak w/ 7
• NYJ @ SEA +3 1/2  Jets by 5 and cover
• BUFF @ DEN -6 1/2  Denver by 4, Buff w/6 1/2
• ATL @ MIN -3  Minn by 4 and cover
• PHILLY @ WASH +5  Philly by 1, Skins w/5
• CAR @NYG -3  Giants by 5 and cover
• GB @CHI -4  Chitown by 1, Pack w/4

week: winners 7-9  ats: 10-6  season: winners 51-26 ats: 49-27-1  (.640)

week 15 bets

• NO@CHI -3 New Orleans by 5 and the cover
• TB@ATL -3 ATL by 1, Tampa with the 3 push
• Tenn@HOU +3 Titans by 1, take Houston with the 3
  
• Wash@Cincy +7 Skins by 8 and the cover
• GB@JAX +1 1/2 take Jax in an upset by 2
• SF@MIA -6 1/2 Miami by 6, Niners w/points
• Det@Indy -17 Indy by 11, Detroit w/points
• SDG@KC +5 SDG by 2, KC w/points
• Buff@NYJ -7 JETS by 3, Buff w/points
• Den@Car -7 Carolina by 2, Denver getting 7
• NWE@OAK +7 1/2 NWE by 6, Oak w/7 1/2
• Pitt@Bal -2 Baltimore by 3 and the cover
• NYG@DAL -3 Dallas by 1, Giants w/3
• Clev@Philly -14 PHILLY by 15 covers
  

week: winners:10-4  ats: 7-6-1 
season 44-17 winners 39-21-1spread (.650)

Week 14 Best Bets

1. Minnesota@Det +10 1/2 Minnesota by 6, Detroit covers
   
2. Cincy@Colts -13 1/2 Colts by 6, Cincy covers
   
3. Atl@Saints -3 Saints by 5 and the cover
   
4. Philly@NYG -7 Giants by 6, Philly covers
   
5. HOUSTON@GB -6 Green Bay by 4, Houston covers
   
6. CLEV@TENN -14 Titans by 12, Browns cover
   
7. JAX@CHI -6 1/2 Chicago by 1, Jax covers
   
8. NYJ@49ERS +3 1/2 Jets by 3, Niners cover
   
9. NWE@SEATTLE +6 Pats by 3, Seattle covers
   
10. KC@DENVER -9 Denver by 6, KC covers
    
11. MIA@BUFF -1 Miami by 1 on the road
    
12. DALLAS@PITT -3 Steelers by 4 and the cover
    
13. STL@AZ -14 Arizona by 17 and the cover
    
14. WASH@BALT -5 Baltimore by 4, Skins cover
    
15. TB@CAR -3 Carolina by 1, Tampa covers

winners 11-4, ats 10-5








last week winners 10-6 spread 12-4...season 34-13 winners 32-15 spread (.681)